Knockout football from here on in at Euro 2024 and our man and football betting expert Jones Knows unleashes his insight and predictions on the action.
France vs Belgium, Monday, 5pm
I’ve been disappointed with both teams so far but the tournament could just start here for both. They are hard to read.
What is patently obvious, however, is that the Belgian back four—the obvious culprits being Wout Faes and Jan Vertonghen—are going to struggle against Kylian Mbappe. That may be the clincher.
If somehow Belgium are going to progress, then they’ll have to rely on some variance with France’s finishing and hope Kevin De Bruyne continues in the vein of form that we’ve seen from him in this tournament.
He has been the heartbeat, playing as a roaming no.10. This type of big occasion is made for players of his ilk and it’s his shot on target prices that standout here. The 10/11 with Sky Bet for him to register an effort on target looks big considering how involved he is in the final third and that he’s already had five shots on target at the tournament.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Kevin de Bruyne to have a shot on target (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Portugal vs Slovenia, Monday, 8pm
Forget Cristiano Ronaldo. The main man for Portugal is Bruno Fernandes.
The better for Portugal it will be once Roberto Martinez figures that out. Well, Ronaldo has now scored just one non-penalty goal in his last 11 matches for Portugal at major international tournaments, and his presence is becoming a problem and sideshow. At the same time, Fernandes is in prime time in his career now, showing just in qualifying that he is the key for Portugal to deliver on the big stage. He grabbed 14 goal contributions and found the net in one of his two starts in the group stages. I’m expecting him to kick on in the knockout stages, starting with what looks a real one-sided contest with Slovenia. The 11/4 with Sky Bet for Fernandes to score in a Portugal win looks a nice price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | BETTING ANGLE: Bruno Fernandes to score in a Portugal win
Romania vs Netherlands, Tuesday, 5pm
For someone who has got 11 assists in his last 22 starts for his country, Denzel Dumfries is being grossly underrated by the Sky Bet markets.
When one factors in how heavily fancied Netherlands are, and their expected goals return is to score over two goals, the 9/2 about Dumfries assisting a goal really does appeal. I would have those odds implied at about an 18 per cent chance; I would price it closer to 30 per cent based on the data and how dangerous Dumfries is down the Netherlands’ right flank.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Denziel Dumfries to register an assist (9/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Austria vs Turkey, Tuesday, 8pm
The next fortnight or so could be an exciting ride for punters like myself who backed Austria pre-tournament. The 80/1 shots have now halved to 16/1. Not only has Ralf Rangnick’s side thrown themselves into the equation here, but they have also landed in the weaker half of the draw thanks to playing no-fear football that saw them top the group.
If this follows onto a collision course with Turkey, then we could just have the game of the tournament right here. It’s beautiful chaos shaping up.
Austria will press hard and fast, and Turkey is full of outstanding and exciting individual players in attack allowed to express themselves. Against that backdrop, there are two defenses that are liable to make mistakes. It just smacks of goals and cards.
Keeping the over cards lines on your side should prove a profitable call throughout the knockout rounds. Since Euro 1996, the average, in the knockouts, comes in at a whopping 4.76 cards per 90 minutes; for the last 16 matches only of the last two Euros, 13 of 16 games went over 3.5 cards. You can combine over 2.5 goals here with 40+ booking points using the Bet Builder to conjure up a 6/4 shot with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 (Austria to win on penalties) | BETTING ANGLE: Over 2.5 goals & 40+ booking points (6/4 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)