The Euro 2024 last 16 kicks off on Saturday, with Sky Sports football writers previewing the action; Fixtures: Italy vs Switzerland, Germany vs Denmark, England vs Slovakia, Spain vs Georgia, France vs Belgium, Portugal vs Slovenia, Romania vs Netherlands, Austria vs Turkey
Calafiori absence may be too much for limited Italy to bear
Italy vs Switzerland, Saturday June 29, 5pm, Berlin
Italy, certainly, have flown a little under the radar in Germany so far—many times because nobody really expects too much more than this. Setting aside Denmark in 1996 and Greece in 2004, there are few European champions in living memory with such low a level of fanfare around retaining their crown.
To those trophy-starved nations, that made sense; less so to a side with six major international honours. But Italy’s team in 2021 was ageing, and the baton-passing hasn’t been smooth. And but for Mattia Zaccagni’s last-minute equalizer against Croatia, they wouldn’t even have reached the knock-out stages.
Even the managerial genius of Luciano Spalletti has not been enough to conjure more than an unconvincing win over Albania to date. And the loss through suspension of 22-year-old Riccardo Calafiori, Italy’s brightest talent in Germany, only makes things more difficult.
He was one of few to shine in the opening game, was unfortunate to concede an own goal which proved the winner against Spain, and made Zaccagni’s equaliser against Croatia with a driving run from defence.
Switzerland could not have picked a better player to sit this game out. Their tournament has been a mirror image of Italy’s, an under-fire coach criticised openly in the media by captain Granit Xhaka.
Whereas Spalletti has spoken of his hopes of creating a team greater than the sum of their parts, Murat Yakin actually did just that. The Swiss were seconds away from winning the group and shocking Germany in their final group game. He has shaken off concerns over scoring goals, with four of their five so far coming from their forward-line, including a reinvigorated Xherdan Shaqiri.
Though they reached the quarter-finals of Euro 2020, Switzerland feel like the apotheosis of a last-16 team. But there is no reason they shouldn’t at least match their performance of three years ago to finally topple this teetering champion.
Germany vs Denmark, Saturday June 29, 8pm, Dortmund
So, the LaLiga champion and Champions League winner now gets to play for his nation in an event at home, bows out in style. But is the 34-year-old too good to be retiring from all professional football after this tournament?
One doesn’t really think of Kroos as something much more than another vital cog within a German team that, on the whole, has impressed. The fact is that he has been one of the all-rounded outstanding midfield players in the odd tournament. The ultimate metronome.
It begs a question: why? For both Germany and Real Madrid, he could be the key difference for years to come.
Kroos has been tempted out of retirement before. He almost retired from football 12 months ago but Real Madrid persuaded him to stay another year. He then reversed his decision to retire from international football in February.
“I’ve told him we are waiting for him to change his mind,” said Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti this month.
Go on Toni, give us more one farewell tour.
Sam Blitz
Slovakia tie a reminder of England’s long-standing problems
England vs Slovakia, Sunday June 30, 5pm, Gelsenkirchen
Struggling to break down the opposition. Laboured and short of ideas in possession. A star forward operating in the wrong areas. Makeshift midfield solutions. A pacey forward on the bench who could stretch the play not deployed. Wide players not delivering end product – would Marcus Rashford be a better option? And Harry Kane struggling to make an impact.
But enough about Sam Allardyce’s solitary game in charge of England.
Eight years on, England meet Slovakia again. Another 1-0 would do the job at Euro 2024 but it is striking that Gareth Southgate is wrestling with similar issues to the ones which were on show in that World Cup qualifier in September 2016.
Sam Allardyce watches on as England struggle in a World Cup qualifier against Slovakia in 2016
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Sam Allardyce watches on as England struggle in a World Cup qualifier against Slovakia in 2016
England are a far better side now, without question. But old habits are stopping them from making the most of their German adventure so far.
Will Southgate cut loose and harness the pace of Anthony Gordon, or, like Allardyce with Jamie Vardy, keep his speedster in reserve? Remarkably, Allardyce said after that win it wasn’t for him to tell a dropping-deep Wayne Rooney where to play. England supporters will hope Southgate uses a firmer hand to remodel his midfield and maximise the qualities of Jude Bellingham and co.
An improved performance is needed from this current Three Lions group to stop Slovakia becoming Southgate’s final fixture in charge of England as it did Allardyce.
Peter Smith
Spain bringing the fun factor to Euro 2024
Spain vs Georgia, Sunday June 30, 8pm, Cologne
It has made me think back to the great Spanish teams of Xavi and Andres Iniesta, who won three straight major tournaments between 2008-2012. Delightful and revolutionary with their football, although I dare say they could be quite boring to watch. Pass. Pass. Pass. Then we’ll pass some more.
It means the Spain team, the only one with a 100 per cent record in the tournament and yet to concede a goal, are trying to follow some pretty huge footsteps. But so differently. It is just pure fun football.
Out of possession, they play a high-risk defensive line and press opposition high with great intensity. With the ball, they go direct into their pacey and powerful wingers before getting it into the box. It’s proving hard to stop, especially when they can switch at any time to play possession football. Rodri, Fabian Ruiz, and Pedri are simply sublime footballers with the ball, rarely wasting it.
Spain
Just look at what they did to Italy. The 1-0 scoreline hugely flattered the Italians.
The shot count was 20-4, the expected goals numbers 2.02-0.16 and the passes in the final third 176-66.
The underlying metrics back up the visuals. Spain are the real deal.
Lewis Jones
Can goal-shy neighbours France and Belgium finally kick into gear?
France vs Belgium, Monday July 1, 5pm, Dusseldorf
In a tournament with two teams ranking second and third in the world, little surprise that France and Belgium were among the pre-tournament favourites going into Euro 2024. Neither, though, has given much justification as to why.
It’s straight into France now,,, whereby an own goal by Max Wober handed them a 1-0 win over Austria, then draws with the Netherlands and Poland rounded out their displays as they finished second in Group D, runners-up to Ralf Rangnick’s impressive aforementioned Austria. And the stats that accompany the grossly unspectacular performance just do not make for enjoyable reading.
Les Bleus’ total of just two goals was their fewest in a major tournament group since the 2010 World Cup—although with the second coming courtesy of a Kylian Mbappe penalty, Didier Deschamps’ side also managed 47 non-penalty attempts without scoring, creating 5.88 xG across the course of those shots. Not only that, just Serbia (3.8 per cent) had a worse shot conversion rate in the group stage than France’s – and indeed Belgium’s – 4.2 per cent.
Youri Tielemans and Kevin De Bruyne’s goals in the 2-0 win over Romania have been all that Belgium have to boast about so far. They also tallied 48 attempts across their three group matches, 18 of which were on target, and fashion 4.34 xG. A sizeable underperformance by any measure but perhaps not a surprise in truth; they now have three goals from 9.15 xG across this tournament and the 2022 World Cup.
That said, VAR has been the most painful of thorns in their side. In their opening defeat to Slovakia, Romelu Lukaku had one goal chalked off for a marginal offside and another, controversially, ruled out after the ball struck Lois Openda’s hand in the build-up. Lukaku then struck to double the Red Devils’ lead against Romania, only to see his third ‘goal’ suffer the same fate as his first.
It hasn’t been pretty so far, but with a place in the quarter-finals up for grabs, there’s no time like the present for one – or both – of these near neighbours to finally kick into gear.
Dan Long
Is Ronaldo still good enough start?
Cristiano Ronaldo celebrates after the final whistle
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Cristiano Ronaldo has yet to score at Euro 2024, but is still performing in other areas for Portugal
Portugal vs Slovenia, Monday July 1, 8pm, Frankfurt
Euro 2024 so far has not been vintage for strikers – Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have just one goal each. Romelu Lukaku and Cristiano Ronaldo have none.
But any talk of Ronaldo potentially being dropped is likely to be unfounded. Despite being 39, the captain has still moved and played well in the group stages, linking up nicely with the wide players.
He also has an assist to his name, for Bruno Fernandes’ goal against Turkey, and has taken the most shots in the tournament with 12. He is also inside the top 10 for touches in the opponent’s box, with 16, while shots on target and big chances created are ranked at five and two respectively.
Some of these conversations will have been due to the fact he was substituted in the 66th minute against Georgia; but few of the Portugal team came out of that day with any distinction whatsoever.
Ultimately, Ronaldo retains a reputation as one of the greatest ever to play the beautiful game and popped up at times in Warsaw to look a good way from finished at this level.
He brings a gravitas and an aura to Portugal that very few other players can; expect him to have plenty more goal involvements before his tournament is out.
Charlotte Marsh
ijk and Dutch must show their true colours
Virgil van Dijk didn’t stop to speak to the media after the Netherlands were stunned by Austria – but later admitted his performances need to improve
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Virgil van Dijk didn’t stay to talk to the media after Netherlands were stunned by Austria – but has admitted his performances need to improve
Romania vs Netherlands, Tuesday July 2, 5pm, Munich
The Netherlands’ team are becoming a party-pooper for its thousands of exuberant orange-clad fans after dark horses Austria turned the Oranje to squash in arguably the game of the tournament so far.
That defeat, of course, demolished confidence, and Romania offers a golden opportunity to set up a swift chance for revenge provided Ralf Rangnick’s side defeats Turkey.
For that to happen, Virgil van Dijk must rediscover his best form. Marco van Basten doubled down this week on his criticism of the Liverpool captain.
“He’s got to lead and he’s the one we’re going to hold accountable in the end,” the 59-year-old said. “He has to organise things and he is responsible. He is the great leader of the team and you have to organise these kinds of things better.
Virgil van Dijk played Marcel Sabitzer onside for Austria’s winner and failed to make a single tackle or interception in the match
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He played Marcel Sabitzer onside for Austria’s winner and failed to make a single tackle or interception in the match
Van Dijk: Dutch may have overestimated own qualities
“I can completely understand the criticism,” Van Dijk told a Friday press conference. “I’m not stupid, I also know that I can do better and that it should be better, and that’s what I’m working on.
“Ich didn’t play mein bestes Spiel gegen Österreich. It affects me, too; I also think that things overall can and should be better. Die ganze Mannschaft hat nicht gelaufen—but ich sehe erstmal bei mir selbst. Ich hätte viel mehr момент bringen können.”.
“Maybe we overestimate ourselves. A lot had to be said and we had to analyse a lot. Things went completely wrong against Austria. It was very bad. We have talked about many aspects, now we have to show it.”.
“It wasn’t in the tactics that things went wrong. It’s more in the will to win, winning that second ball. You don’t have to talk about that with the coaches; it is something the players must do with themselves. So, we have spoken about that…and also in harsh words.”
“Unfortunately, the criticism has not led to improvement, because it is actually the same points that are not going well. That in itself, in respect, is a little disappointing. I’m sorry I have to say it again, but I can also keep my mouth shut.”
He alone bears the responsibility for the defeat in Berlin.
Ronald Koeman’s side were without influential midfielder Frenkie de Jong after he failed to recover from an ankle injury in time for the tournament. Teun Koopmeiners was also forced to drop out, as was Joey Veerman, who was hooked after 35 minutes in the Austria loss.
A midfield imbalance is not only afflicting England out in Germany. Unlike Gareth Southgate, Koeman isn’t afraid to make changes – but so far, none have paid off.
Despite the problems, the Netherlands will be favoured to overcome Romania, giving Koeman and Van Dijk another shot at breaking the longstanding Dutch tradition of disappointing at major tournaments.
Ben Grounds
Dangerous Austria are a force to be reckoned with
Austria v Turkey, Tuesday July 2, 8pm, Leipzig
Ralf Rangnick admitted there was scepticism among the players when he was appointed as Austria’s manager in 2022 but those doubts have already been extinguished after the national team finished top of their group at a European Championship for the first time in their history.
Known for being one of the inventors of “gegenpressing”, the German has left his permanent mark on modern football, and Austria’s current crop is excelling under his guidance.
Ralf Rangnick’s Austria reached the last 16 as Group D winners
Their aggressive, front-foot approach saw them perform well in a narrow loss to France before more eye-catching displays followed in deserved wins over Poland and the Netherlands.
While Austria’s tireless running and fluid movement caused Netherlands constant problems last time out, their never-say-die attitude – instilled by Rangnick – was just as impressive.
Many will view a country ranked 25th in the world as a surprise package at this tournament, but Austria have now lost just twice in 19 matches.
This side of Rangnick is not a team to be joked with at all, and they will not be afraid of any team whatsoever in the knockout stage. They are also on the same side as England in the draw. A word of caution to the Three Lions then.