Experts and seasoned Republicans warn that Donald Trump and election denialist allies like Turning Point USA, True the Vote, and others are disseminating conspiracy theories about election fraud to accuse the election of rigging if Trump loses.
The strategy might be disastrous. If Trump loses, former president Trump and his allies “will throw everything at the wall and see what sticks,” according to Mesa Arizona Republican mayor John Giles, who spoke at the Democratic national convention in August in support of Vice President Kamala Harris.
He added, “If they lose, they’ll say everything went wrong. I’d be amazed if Trump doesn’t try to incite trouble if he loses.”
Trump and Maga’s allies’ twin drives repeat 2020 falsehoods about voting machine and drop box fraud but now promote Trump’s conspiratorial attacks on federal and state prosecutors who charged him with trying to subvert his 2020 loss and baseless claims that noncitizens will vote in large numbers.
Turning Point USA, for instance, has touted a multi-million dollar drive to get out more votes for Trump in key swing states while holding a few big rallies where bogus claims are still being made that the 2020 election was rigged and new fears are raised about fraud this year.
Trump and his Maga allies have spent months decrying “election interference” and “lawfare” to sully federal and state charges he faces over his multiple and aggressive efforts to block Joe Biden from taking office on 6 January 2021, experts say, rallying his supporters and undermining the rule of law.
In his June debate with President Joe Biden, Trump wavered on accepting this year’s election results, like he did in 2020 and 2016.
Trump replied, “If it’s a fair and legal and good election—absolutely,” when asked three times if he would accept the results. Trump then repeated a lie that US elections are rigged to explain his massive 2020 comeback efforts. “I would have accepted these—but the fraud and everything else was ridiculous.”
In the Maga environment, bogus claims of large noncitizen voting have become widespread this year. In April, Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson held a press event at Mar-a-Lago on the matter that prompted the House to adopt a bill banning noncitizen voting, even though it is illegal and historically rare.
True the Vote’s March fundraising appeal noted its attempts to “draft arguments for litigation” and other preparations to prevent election “chaos” this year “by way of mass illegal voter registrations” to incite fears of noncitizen voting.
If Trump loses, election experts and Republican veterans warn that Trump and his Maga allies would say the election was rigged.
Ex-Republican congressman Dave Trott of Michigan told the Guardian, “Trump continues to encourage his supporters like Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA to question the integrity of our elections.” He claims fraud but has no evidence or basis for it and is only perpetuating these lies to disrupt democracy if he loses.
“A lot of false claims are masquerading as efforts to change policy to improve election integrity when in reality they’re just designed to sow distrust in our system if Trump loses,” said Centre for Election Innovation and Research director David Becker. “This is all designed to manufacture claims that if Trump loses, the election was stolen and sow discord, chaos, and potential violence.”
On another election front, Trump has baselessly attacked Vice President Kamala Harris for leading a “vicious, violent overthrow” of Biden to replace him as the party’s nominee and has implied that Harris and Biden intentionally failed to provide adequate security for his rallies, which led to the assassination attempt.
After Biden suspended his re-election bid and Harris became the Democratic nominee, Trump and allies like Turning Point USA have intensified their efforts to mobilise Trump supporters to vote and cast doubt on the political system.
In February, Turning Point founder and far-right media star Kirk called Trump’s several criminal accusations a Democratic plot on his radio broadcast. “The regime couldn’t beat Trump in a primary,” said Kirk’s show’s online teaser featuring Trump legal team member Will Scharf. “So, to win in 2024, they’re banking more and more on lawfare to save them.”.
In order to improve Trump’s chances of winning the presidency in 2024, Turning Point Action, the political arm of Turning Point USA, announced plans to invest tens of millions of dollars in a “choose the vote” programme run by hundreds of paid staff members in key states like Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Kirk’s group has organised several major Trump rallies that have contained phoney 2020 election fraud accusations.
At a June rally Trump attended at Dream City Church in Phoenix, Kirk said, “We are going to make November too big to rig, and we are going to overwhelm the ballot boxes.”. Trump promised to make the election “too big to rig” at the event.
TP Action has also increased its outreach to Christian nationalist voters, whom Kirk has prioritised to aid Trump. Trump spoke at TP Action’s “Believers Summit” in Florida in July, raising questions about his election integrity. He urged Christians to vote, stating, “Just this time… you’ll be done.”
TP Action has a poor record in recent general elections, backing hard-right candidates like election denialist Kari Lake, who lost her governorship in 2022 and claimed fraud, but in a July Republican primary, the group defeated Maricopa County’s top election official, Stephen Richer, who rejected election denialist charges in 2020 and 2022.
Texas-based True the Vote has long promoted election conspiracies concerning drop box voting fraud and other spurious claims, and the group is now sowing doubt in Wisconsin.
In an interview with Christian nationalist and self-styled prophet Lance Wallnau on July 30, Catherine Engelbrecht, who founded True the Vote in 2009, said her group was working with a few Wisconsin sheriffs to monitor drop boxes for voting fraud using camera equipment the group will provide.
True the Vote funded right-wing agitator Dinesh D’Souza’s 2020 film 2,000 mules about drop box cheating, which was largely rejected.
been. According to a July CNN story, Engelbrecht has pledged to utilise a new software that she claims is being used by 7,000 people to clean up supposedly inflated voter files in numerous jurisdictions, a ploy that some election authorities and experts have criticised for its faults. David Becker said the data sharing methods make “voter lists more accurate than they have ever been.”.
Republican veterans believe Trump and his Maga allies intentionally sow questions about the democratic system, which they will use if Trump loses in November.
Pennsylvania ex-Republican congressman Charlie Dent told the Guardian that if Trump loses, “I expect he will do the same thing in 2024” due to his repeated bogus claims about 2020 election fraud. If he loses, he will raise Cain in state capitals and bring his allies to argue fraud.