“Washington’s ‘China Consensus’ Conceals a Deeper Debate on Global Power Dynamics”
For the past several years, the prevailing view within the U.S. foreign policy establishment has been that the United States and China are locked in “great power competition,” often abbreviated as GPC in Washington. This rivalry now extends across a wide array of sectors, from semiconductors, batteries, and electric vehicles to exerting influence in the Middle East and Africa, shaping the global order’s rules, and even competing for Olympic medals.
This competitive lens reflects widespread concerns over China’s rise, permeating discussions not only in Washington but also in Europe and Asia, and prominently featuring in G7 Summit deliberations. These concerns have sparked numerous secondary debates, including the true scale of China’s military budget, the health of its economy, and the viability of its mixed autocratic and selectively capitalist system. There’s even speculation about whether China is in decline rather than on the rise.
These debates reveal a complex and multifaceted understanding of China’s position on the global stage. While some argue that China’s economic and military growth poses a significant challenge to U.S. dominance, others question the sustainability of its rapid expansion and its internal stability. This nuanced discourse suggests that beneath the surface of Washington’s ‘China Consensus,’ there lies a deeper and more intricate debate about the future of global power dynamics.
As policymakers and analysts grapple with these issues, the direction of U.S.-China relations will likely continue to evolve, influenced by both immediate strategic concerns and broader assessments of China’s long-term trajectory. Understanding these underlying debates is crucial for navigating the complexities of international relations in the 21st century.